Scenario-based LCA for assessing the future environmental impacts of wind offshore energy: An exemplary analysis for a 9.5-MW wind turbine in Germany

Table 1 Overview of scenario narratives and main assumptions

Scenarios	Pessimistic	Moderate	Optimistic
Narratives	How large are the potential environmental impacts of a 9.5-MW OWT in 2030 and 2050 if the OWT is constructed and operated under less favourable conditions?	How large are the potential environmental impacts of a 9.5-MW OWT in 2030 and 2050 if the OWT is constructed and operated under average conditions?	How large are the potential environmental impacts of a 9.5-MW OWT in 2030 and 2050 if the OWT is constructed and operated under the most favourable conditions?
Wind quality* (average wind speed North Sea)	6 m/s (poor)	10 m/s (average)	14 m/s (good)
Deployment rate of offshore wind energy	low	medium	high
Technology progress	low	medium	high
Share of renewables in the electricity mix	low	medium	high
Maintenance	high for nacelle, low for blades	medium	low for nacelle, high for blades
Background database	in line with greenhouse gases concentrations to keep global mean temperatures below 3.5 °C by 2100	in line with greenhouse gases concentrations to keep global mean temperatures below 2 °C by 2100	in line with greenhouse gases concentrations to keep global mean temperatures below 2 °C by 2100

*The wind quality is assessed by the average wind speed (10.17 ± 4.48 m/s) evaluated in 5 sites of the North Sea at different hub heights (see Supplementary Material 1: Table S7 and Supplementary Material 1: Figure S7)

ISSN: 2192-0567