Table 2 Wind offshore technology trends and scenarios considered in the study
Component | Technology considered | Parameters | Scenario OWT 9.5-MW (year) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pessimistic (Φ174 m) | Moderate (Φ169 m) | Optimistic (Φ164 m) | |||
Nacelle | G-DFIG, G-SG (EESG and PMSG), DD-PMSG | Market share (year) | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Mass, t | 286 (current) 292 (2030) 238 (2050) | 274 (current) 241 (2030) 218 (2050) | 256 (current) 222 (2030) 200 (2050) | ||
% mass reduction | 9% (2030) 17% (2050) | 12% (2030) 20% (2050) | 13% (2030) 22% (2050) | ||
Magnets | 2% nacelle mass | 2% nacelle mass | 2% nacelle mass | ||
Rotor | GFRP/GFRP spar cap—GFRP/CFRP spar cap (year) | Market share (year) | Base: 50–50% SE1: 40–60% SE2: 0–100% (2030 and 2050) | Base: 50–50% SE1: 40–60% SE2: 0–100% (2030 and 2050) | Base: 50–50% SE1: 40–60% SE2: 0–100% (2030 and 2050) |
Mass, t | 254 t—188 t (2030 and 2050) | 229 t—182 t (2030 and 2050) | 221 t—165 t (2030 and 2050) | ||
Carbon fibre | 8% rotor mass | 8% rotor mass | 8% rotor mass | ||
Foundation | Monopile (XL monopile) D/t = 160 feasible for XL monopile, weight reduction up to 30% | Market share (year) | 100% (2030 and 2050) | 100% (2030 and 2050) | 100% (2030 and 2050) |
Mass, t | 1028 t (2030) 904 t (2050) | 943 t (2030) 833 t (2050) | 858 t (2030) 762 t (2050) | ||
% mass reduction | 4% (2030) 15% (2050) | 7% (2030) 18% (2050) | 11% (2030) 21% (2050) | ||
Tower | Tubular steel towers (height at least half rotor diameter) | Market share (year) | 100% (2030 and 2050) | 100% (2030 and 2050) | 100% (2030 and 2050) |
Mass, t | 520 t (2030) 462 t (2050) | 463 t (2030) 403 t (2050) | 406 t (2030) 343 t (2050) | ||
% mass reduction | 16% (2030) 29% (2050) | 9% (2030) 21% (2050) | 3% (2030) 14% (2050) | ||