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Table 5 The underlying data and parameters used in different scenarios

From: Beyond short-term impact of COVID-19 on transport decarbonization: a scenario analysis of passenger and freight transport by mode in China, 2020–2030

Transport modes

Variable

Absolute value in 2021

Annual change rate in different scenarios (%)

Business-as-usual scenario

L1

L2

L3

L4

Passenger transport-road

Transport volume (pkm)

362754

− 4.6%

− 4.6%*(1–90%/3)

− 4.6%*(1–90%/3*2)

− 4.6%*(1–90%)

− 4.6%*(1–90%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/pkm)

31.70

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%/3

0%

Passenger transport-rail

Transport volume (million pkm)

956781

4.0%

4.0%*(1–44%/3)

4.0%*(1–44%/3*2)

4.0%*(1–44%)

4.0%*(1–44%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/pkm)

6.11

− 2.5%

− 2.5%

− 2.5%

-2.5%/3

0%

Passenger transport-air

Transport volume

652903

9.3%

9.3%*(1–58%/3)

9.3%*(1–58%/3*2)

9.3%*(1–58%)

9.3%*(1–58%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/pkm)

87.69

− 1.6%

− 1.6%

− 1.6%

− 1.6%/3

0%

Passenger transport-water

Transport volume (million pkm)

3311

0.8%

0.8%*(1–59%/3)

0.8%*(1–59%/3*2)

0.8%*(1–59%)

0.8%*(1–59%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/pkm)

2.04

− 3.3%

− 3.3%

− 3.3%

− 3.3%/3

0%

Freight transport-road

Transport volume (million tkm)

6908765

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%*(1–22%/3)

5.0%*(1–22%/3*2)

5.0%*(1–22%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/tkm)

41.25

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%/3

0%

Freight transport-rail

Transport volume (million tkm)

3319073

4.3%

4.3%

4.3%*(1–10%/3)

4.3%*(1–10%/3*2)

4.3%*(1–10%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/tkm)

6.11

-2.5%

− 2.5%

− 2.5%

− 2.5%/3

0%

Freight transport-air

Transport volume (million tkm)

27773

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%*(1–35%/3)

0.2%*(1–35%/3*2)

0.2%*(1–35%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/tkm)

974.32

− 1.6%

− 1.6%

− 1.6%

− 1.6%/3

0%

Freight transport-water

Transport volume (million tkm)

11557751

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%*(1–30%/3)

5.0%*(1–30%/3*2)

5.0%*(1–30%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/tkm)

6.13

− 3.3%

− 3.3%

− 3.3%

− 3.3%/3

0%

City buses

Carbon emissions (million tons)

Carbon emissions (million tons): 8.5

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

Carbon emission intensity (g/tkm)

− 4.3%

− 4.3%

− 4.3%

− 4.3%/3

0%

Taxi

Transport volume (million pkm)

Carbon emissions (million tons):9.3

0.5%

0.5%*(1–35%/3)

0.5%*(1–35%/3*2)

0.5%*(1–35%)

0.5%*(1–35%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/pkm)

-4.3%

-4.3%

-4.3%

-4.3%/3

0%

Motorcycles

Transport volume (million pkm)

Carbon emissions (million tons): 11.8

3.4%

3.4%*(1–35%/3)

3.4%*(1–35%/3*2)

3.4%*(1–35%)

3.4%*(1–35%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/pkm)

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%/3

0%

Metro

Transport volume (million pkm)

230151

12.2%

12.2%*(1–77%/3)

12.2%*(1–77%/3*2)

12.2%*(1–77%)

12.2%*(1–77%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/pkm)

11.8

− 2.7%

− 2.7%

− 2.7%

− 2.7%/3

0%

Private and institutional passenger vehicles

Transport volume (million pkm)

Carbon emissions (million tons): 514.5

7.8%

7.8%*(1–35%/3)

7.8%*(1–35%/3*2)

7.8%*(1–35%)

7.8%*(1–35%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/pkm)

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%/3

0%

Private and institutional trucks

Transport volume (million tkm)

Carbon emissions (million tons): 158.4

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%*(1–22%/3)

5.0%*(1–22%/3*2)

5.0%*(1–22%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/tkm)

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%/3

0%

Rural vehicles

Transport volume (million tkm)

Carbon emissions (million tons): 23.9

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%*(1–22%/3)

5.0%*(1–22%/3*2)

5.0%*(1–22%)

Carbon emission intensity (g/tkm)

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%

− 3.4%/3

0%

  1. Given the huge variations of vehicle size and model used by various transport sub-modes beyond the scope of national statistics, there exist no uniform carbon emission intensities for vehicles by fuel type. Consequently, the forecast for carbon emissions of each sub-mode is based on the estimated carbon emissions of the respective sub-mode in 2021